What do you expect when you pay $12 million for the nation’s No. 1 QB? Playoff aspirations in year 1 or 2 and incredible numbers. That’s exactly what the Michigan Wolverines had in mind for Bryce Underwood when they flipped him from LSU.

Although the expectations didn’t even remotely get met after year 1, a University of Michigan student believes that for the Wolverines to have any shot at the playoff, Underwood has to be one of the best QBs in the country. “Bryce Underwood has to take a real step forward and look like a top-15, top-10 quarterback if this team wants to win nine games and improve from where they were last year,” the host of College Football with Sam, Samuel Recker, made his argument. “There were moments where he was so, so good last year, and others where he was so, so bad.

You’re not exactly going to be playing 2025 Ohio State Buckeyes every week. You’re going to be playing teams next year that are close to that in talent, and maybe have a better matchup against you, or even have a better game plan for defeating you.” That is why Saturday mattered more than a normal spring scrimmage. Michigan does not need Underwood to look perfect in April, but it does need him to look steadier than he did a year ago.

Instead, the same old concerns followed him in the spring. Yesterday’s spring game was definitely a wake-up call for Bryce Underwood and Michigan fans. After all the hype about his off-season development under OC Jason Beck (who led Utah to a top-5 scoring offense), Jordan Palmer (a QB guru who worked with his footwork and pocket presence), and Koy Detmer (QB coach), he only played for about one quarter, and sadly, the numbers didn’t replicate the off-season efforts.

Michigan’s tough 2026 schedule puts a lot of pressure on Bryce Underwood to succeed. The now sophomore quarterback can’t have only 11 touchdowns and 9 interceptions if Michigan wants to compete for the College Football Playoff. pic.twitter.com/ezaOZsAK8t — College Football with Sam (@CFBwSam) April 19, 2026 He completed 3 of his 9 passes for just 22 yards. Critics noticed he still had “happy feet” in the pocket and was missing throws that a top-10 caliber QB has to make.

He even got sacked twice in the bubble-wrap system. For a quarterback carrying this much hype, the concern is not one bad spring day by itself. It is that the rough patches looked familiar.

So, judging based on their strength of schedule and Bryce Underwood’s current form (spring form), the Wolverines might barely touch 8 wins this season. Even if they do, it would be because of a carry job from the defense, just like last season, not Underwood. For last season, you could cut him some slack because he was new to the system.

But you cannot expect 2,428 yards with 11 touchdowns and 9 interceptions in year 2, if anything. However, some analysts pointed out that the offensive line was breaking down too quickly. So it made it quite difficult to judge whether it’s all on him or just a result of a messy pocket.

Regardless, it’s a grave they are digging. He even got outshone and outperformed by true freshman backup Tommy Carr. The road ahead doesn’t get any easier because Michigan’s 2026 schedule is stacked with tough matchups.

They have to face powerhouses like #12 Oklahoma in week 2, followed by a mid-season gauntlet against Oregon, Penn State, and a national championship-winning Hoosiers team. If Underwood is still struggling with his footwork and decision-making by the time they hit that stretch, there go potentially 4 wins of the season. Add Ohio State Buckeyes into the mix, and that’s an 8–5, playoff-missed season once again for the Wolverines.

To have a shot at beating any of these teams, Bryce Underwood has to be in the top-10 national QB conversation by then. He needs to be throwing at least double or closer to triple the amount of touchdowns (22 or 30-ish). If not, it’s going to be nearly impossible for Michigan under his regime.

What does Vegas say about the Wolverines’ 2026 season? At the end of the day, Coach Kyle Whittingham is still publicly backing his guy, saying Underwood has improved “behind the scenes,” even if it didn’t show in the scrimmage. But the grace period for being a “young talent” is officially over.

Right now, the betting world is treating the Wolverines like a high-risk, high-reward bet. Vegas has currently set Michigan’s over/under win total at 8.5 games. However, even after a timid spring game, Bryce Underwood remains a dark-horse favorite in the Heisman Trophy race.

CBS Sports ranks him as the No. 23 QB in the Power Four and the 7th-best in the Big Ten. Most sportsbooks, like BetMGM, have him sitting around +3500. Michigan’s currently listed with the 12th- to 15th-best odds to win the National Championship.

They are hovering around +2500 to +3000 at most major books. However, Bryce Underwood has a chance to get it right. He’s got another 4 months to work on his mechanics and accuracy. It’d be interesting to see whether these four mont