The Jets don't take Arvell Reese or David Bailey? Will A.J. Brown get traded? Who will draft Ty Simpson? We make five bold predictions for the 2026 NFL Draft.
One of the fun things about the NFL Draft is that the possible outcomes are endless. Yes, the expectation is that the Las Vegas Raiders will select Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the No. 1 overall pick when the 2026 NFL Draft commences on Thursday. After that, however, things get interesting.
There’s no clear favorite of whom the New York Jets will take at No. 2. The potential landing spots for Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson remain up in the air, as we don't know if there'll be two quarterbacks taken in the first round. The New York Giants and Cincinnati Bengals also added some intrigue on Saturday, with Pro Bowl defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence going to the Queen City for the 10th overall pick.
With the trade, the Giants are the only team in this year's draft with two top-10 picks. So, let's delve into five of the biggest questions entering the 2026 NFL Draft and answer each of them with a bold prediction. 5. Jets on the clock at No. 2: David Bailey, Arvell Reese … or a wild card?
The New York Jets and head coach Aaron Glenn might be deciding which one of the draft's two best edge rusher prospects (Ohio State’s Arvell Reese, Texas Tech’s David Bailey) they want to take at No. 2. Reese, considered one of the best players available in this year’s draft, has better measurable and more upside. Bailey, meanwhile, is the more polished product, totaling 14.5 sacks in his final season for the Red Raiders.
But is there a chance that another player is in the mix for New York at No. 2? The Jets canceled a pre-draft visit with Bailey at their facility this past week, adding some intrigue to their decision. That news led some NFL observers to wonder if New York had already made the decision to select the Texas Tech product because it knows enough about him as a person, or the Jets decided against taking Bailey, therefore canceling the visit.
Positional value is a consideration, with teams angling to select premium players early in the draft because of the salary they will command as top picks compared to the value of the top players at their position. However, three of the top six overall players in this year’s draft — running back Jeremiyah Love, linebacker Sonny Styles and safety Caleb Downs — are elite talents at non-premium positions. Further, history tells us that there’s a 50% hit rate on first-round picks.
And if you’re the dysfunctional Jets, who hold the longest playoff drought in the league, you’re trying to improve those odds by taking the player most likely to have a productive NFL career, no matter that position. Prediction: The Jets stun everyone and take Downs at No. 2. Downs is a transformational player who can serve as a face of a franchise in a big market like New York, creating connectivity in a building that needs a culture upgrade.
As a versatile safety who can line up at a handful of different positions, Downs fits the "Big Nickel" role teams covet being filled by players like Kyle Hamilton, Nick Emmanwori and Derwin James in some of the best defenses in the league. Also, the Jets have several other bites at the apple early in the draft to secure players from premium positions in the future. New York has nine first and second-round picks over the next two years, including three first-round picks in 2027.
That means New York can be selective in how they use those picks at other positions, taking players with those picks or using the selections in a trade to obtain a premium player to improve their roster. The Jets already have a Pro Bowl running back, placing the franchise tag on Breece Hall earlier this offseason. Some NFL sources I spoke with consider Love to be the best player in the draft, but that would be redundant for the Jets.
The next safest pick? Downs. So, Caleb, welcome to New York. 4. Is Chiefs GM Brett Veach correct that we'll see a trade-heavy first round?
The 2025 NFL Draft was memorably light on trades. Entering draft night, no first-round pick had been moved, and there were only four trades involving a first-round pick on draft night. Kansas City Chiefs general manager Brett Veach expects that number to be higher this year.
"It should be an entertaining night and there will probably be a lot of trades," Veach told reporters this past week. "That’s what I think a draft like this — when you don’t have two or three franchise quarterbacks and a Will Anderson Jr. or a Myles Garrett — it does lend itself to open up to a lot of fun, a lot of excitement. I think from a fan’s perspective, they should have a lot of fun next Thursday."
Veach pointed to a lack of premium players at the top of this year’s draft, along with premium players at offensive tackle, defensive end and receiver being graded closely, leaving teams moving around the board to get in place to draft their guy. Also, six teams (Jets, Chiefs, New York Giants, Cleveland Browns, Miami Dolphins, Dallas Cowboys) have two selections in the first round, giving them more ammunition to make moves. Six teams have no first-r
