The USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) conducts US blockade operations related to the Strait of Hormuz on April 16, 2026, in the Arabian Sea. | US Navy via Getty Images Are the US and Iran on the verge of a full peace agreement — or a return to all-out war? On the one hand, President Donald Trump has told multiple reporters in recent days that Iran has effectively agreed to all US conditions and that talks are going well, with Vice President JD Vance set to land in Pakistan for more this week. On the other hand, after briefly declaring it reopened last week, Iran once again declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, firing on ships transiting the waterway over the weekend, and the US continues to maintain a partial blockade on Iranian ports, seizing an Iranian vessel on Sunday.
It’s unclear if Iranian negotiators will even be there to meet Vance in Islamabad. There may also be a third option: The current status quo — definitely not peace, but not quite a return to war either — could simply continue for the time being. At the moment, that’s an outcome that both the US and Iran would probably prefer over making what each would view as a humiliating compromise.
But the costs of that state of affairs continue to grow every day that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and the region remains under the threat of a return to war. In some ways, the dynamic is not all that different from what it was throughout the weeks of the US-Israeli bombing campaign: a competition to see which side can endure pain the longest. The difference in this new phase of the war is that when it stops is now primarily Iran’s decision.
Can the US and Iran get to yes? The main dynamic at the moment is that the US has incentive to end the war but isn’t sure how. Iran has the means to end the war but isn’t sure if it wants to.
Prior to the war, the US was seeking to pressure Iran to fully give up its nuclear program, with hawks hoping for a broader deal that also included Iran giving up its support for foreign proxy groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen and accepting limits on its ballistic missile program. Trump’s most confident statements to reporters notwithstanding, the latter two goals have mostly fallen by the wayside. This is now a negotiation about Iran’s nuclear program and future control of the Strait of Hormuz — something that wasn’t an issue at all before this war started.
If Iran had an actual nuclear weapon right now, it would probably not be in this situation, but it’s clear that its enrichment program did more to paint a target on the country than protect it. Even before the war started, Iran was reportedly considering agreeing to major concessions on its nuclear program, including diluting its 400 kilogram stockpile of highly-enriched uranium. The US-Israeli bombing campaign may have made a nuclear deal more likely, but not quite in the way that was promised.
“The fact that [the Iranians] now have the Strait of Hormuz, thanks to the US-Israeli attack on Iran — that’s nice leverage, which means that they have a freer hand now on making concessions on the nuclear issue,” said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute. Last week, Axios reported that the United States was considering a deal to release $20 billion in frozen Iranian assets in exchange for Iran turning over or diluting its 400 kilogram stockpile of highly-enriched uranium. This would be a tough deal for Trump to sell politically, though, considering that even this week he has continued to attack the Obama administration for “1.7 Billion dollars in ‘GREEN’ cash” released to Iran as part of the 2015 nuclear deal.
But, if coupled with inspections and verification, it would constitute more progress on the Iranian nuclear issue than seemed possible just a few weeks ago, and Iran’s more confident position as a result of taking Hormuz is at least partially to thank for it. The issue of the strait may be harder to resolve than the nuclear issue. Iran’s proposal to impose tolls on ships exiting the strait will be unacceptable not only for the United States but for its trading partners as well.
The strait is an international waterway, and Iran’s attempt to take control of it challenges the principles of free navigation that underlie the global trading system. But that doesn’t mean Iran will let go of its new economic weapon without getting anything in return. The Iranian regime’s main goals in this conflict have been, first, to survive and second, to impose costs on the US and its allies so severe that they wouldn’t be tempted to attack the country again in a few months.
By seizing the strait, Iran has succeeded on the second goal, perhaps even more than it expected. But a debate has now opened up over whether it’s time for Iran to compromise and move on from the conflict or to continue to inflict punishment on its enemies. In an interview on Iranian state television over the weekend, parliament speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’