GREENVILLE, SOUTH CAROLINA - MARCH 19: Henri Veesaar #13 of the North Carolina Tar Heels dunks the ball against Nyk Lewis #1 of the VCU Rams during the second half in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena on March 19, 2026 in Greenville, South Carolina. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images) | Getty Images Henri Veesaar had a season for UNC that few saw coming. Veesaar elevated his three-point percentage in his senior season from 32.7% to 42.6%, posting an effective field goal percentage of .677.

For the season, Henri averaged 17 points, 8.7 boards, and 2.1 assists, using his time in Chapel Hill to elevate his status from bench player in Tucson to potential NBA first round pick. (Side note: fans who love to point out players who shot better away from Chapel Hill seem to forget guys like Veesaar and Manek, who posted career bests here).Towards that end, NBA draft talk projects Veesaar anywhere from back end of the first round to middle of the second round. ESPN mocks see Veesaar landing anywhere from 36-44. The Athletic has him at 32.

Rookie Scale, which blends its own player analysis with estimates from other sources, puts Henri at 35. The NBA advisory board reportedly did not give Henri a consensus first round grade.The positioning creates a real question for Veesaar. Last season, the NBA started guaranteeing two years for players at the top of the 2nd round, which increases their chance to put down roots in the league.

However, the money starts to drop off considerably beyond pick 30. In 2025, being picked 30th guaranteed two years totaling $5.6 million, with team options for years three and four totaling an additional $8.5 million. Pick 40 last season signed a contract for two years guaranteed for $3.4 million, with years three and four a team option at an additional $5 million.

Pick 50 got a one-year deal at $475,000, with two more years as a team option totaling $2 million.With crazy portal numbers for proven big men rumored to be in excess of $4 million, Veesaar clearly stands to make more money for one season by remaining at UNC, assuming UNC pays market rate. Towards the higher end of Veesaar’s draft predictions, Veesaar can make that money back if he puts down roots and if he gets to a lucrative second contract one year faster. Towards the back end of his predictions, Veesaar would be leaving multiple millions on the table.Throw in this: if the NCAA passes the “five years eligibility” rule, Veesaar could be looking at making as much in the next two years of college ball as he would in four NBA years at pick 40.

That’s how rapidly NIL and the financial arms race in college sports has escalated value at Henri’s position and skill level.That’s a tough decision for Henri, and Henri’s decision leaves us with a troubling question of our own: what would be the ceiling for UNC next season if Veesaar declares?Louisville and Duke have been throwing money at next season’s roster, with some suggesting Louisville may end up with the most expensive roster in college basketball. Virginia returns everyone and adds a couple of new pieces. Malone will be instituting a new culture with a remade roster and no one available in the portal nearly as proven as Veesaar, or even with the potential Veesaar flashed at Arizona.

Would UNC be starting the season hoping for fourth best in the ACC? Or do you see room for more optimism?