More than N109.5bn has been released from Nigeria’s Ecological Fund in three years. Yet, as the 2026 rainy season approaches, fear is creeping back into homes, farms, and riverine communities across the country. Figures obtained from the Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation show that between July 2023 and December 2025, a total of N109,516,046,114.35 was disbursed to tackle ecological challenges, particularly flooding.

The spending has steadily climbed. In the second half of 2023 alone, N21.1bn was released. That figure rose to N34.78bn in 2024 and jumped to N53.62bn in 2025.

A closer look at the monthly breakdown tells an even more detailed story of consistent spending. In 2023, disbursements ranged from N3.3bn in July to N4.1bn in September, before closing the year at N3.83bn in December. Uba Sani: Kaduna Now Better Than I met It Moroccan team reach first CAF Champions League final in 41 years In 2024, allocations fluctuated, peaking at N4.73bn in February but dipping sharply to just N127.4m in August and N127.2m in October.

By 2025, monthly releases consistently stayed above N3bn, climbing as high as N6.08bn in September, the peak of the rainy season. Still, despite the rising financial commitment, the anxiety on the ground is hard to ignore. For farmers like Lagos-based fish farmer, Mohammed Alagangan, the conversation is no longer about how much has been spent, but whether it will make any difference when the rains come.

Changing Climate Condition Credit: Benedict Uwalaka Speaking to Daily Trust, Alagangan said changing climate conditions, particularly the shortening and irregularity of the Harmattan season, are clear indicators that rainfall patterns are becoming increasingly unstable. “Scientifically, there is what is called climate change and it is real. The seasons are no longer regular,” he said, noting that Harmattan, traditionally spanning from October to January, now lasts only a few weeks in some cases.

According to him, the shift suggests a similar compression in rainfall periods, which could result in intense downpours within a short timeframe. “We are now looking at a very short period of rain that might lead to flooding, there is a very high possibility of flooding, so we should not rule that out,” he added. Alagangan cautioned that heavy rainfall driven by accumulated atmospheric moisture could trigger severe flooding, with significant economic consequences, particularly for farmers operating in flood-prone areas.

He urged governments at all levels to intensify sensitisation efforts and prepare for looming risks. Credit: Benedict Uwalaka “We should just put all machinery in place and make sure that all our flood plains are not too engrossed with economic activity,” he said. Highlighting the vulnerability of agricultural investments, he stressed the need for farmers to adopt climate-resilient practices.

He pointed to practical mitigation techniques in fish farming, such as the use of reinforced netting systems in ponds to prevent stock loss during floods. “A lot of farmers don’t have access to this kind of information, and the cost is also high, but using part of your investment to fortify your activity will go a long way,” he noted. Alagangan also called on state governments to improve drainage systems and water channelisation to reduce flood impact.

While acknowledging ongoing efforts in Lagos, he said more needs to be done to open up waterways and direct floodwaters into the lagoon. “If the government refuses to do the needful, people will continue to suffer losses year in, year out,” he warned. He advised farmers without the technical capacity to mitigate flood risks to avoid flood plains altogether, stressing that prevention remains the most effective safeguard in the face of growing climate uncertainty.

Annual Flood Outlook Minister of Water Resources and Sanitation, Joseph Terlumun Utsev, recently warned that 14,118 communities across 266 local government areas in 33 states and the Federal Capital Territory face a high flood risk in 2026. Presenting the Annual Flood Outlook in Abuja, he said the forecast offers “evidence-based predictions to help governments, stakeholders and communities prepare ahead of the flood season.” Credit: Benedict Uwalaka The risk window stretches from April to November, threatening agriculture, infrastructure, and already fragile livelihoods. Major cities likely to experience flash and urban flooding include Abakaliki, Abeokuta, Abuja, Asaba, Benin City, Birnin Kebbi, Calabar, Ibadan, Kaduna, Kano, Lagos, Makurdi, Nguru, Onitsha, Osogbo, Port Harcourt, Sokoto, Warri, and Yola.

Coastal and riverine flooding is also expected in Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Lagos, Ogun, Rivers, and Ondo states due to rising sea levels and tidal surges. Further compounding concerns, the Council of Registered Builders of Nigeria warned of increased risks to buildings and infrastructure during the 2026 rainy season. In its advisory based on the seasonal climate pre