Since clothing manufacturing, fabric sourcing and shipping calendars are planned months in advance, these constant tariff changes affect the overall costs dramatically. This is forcing buyers to move their orders elsewhere.Why Did Washington Introduce Wildly Unequal Tariffs?The African apparel sector has long been concentrated in a handful of countries with Kenya (31.5%), Lesotho (20.6%), Madagascar (19.9%), Ethiopia (18.3%), Mauritius (5.1%) accounting for 90% of AGOA market share. What changed in 2025 was that Washington briefly introduced a tariff map that was wildly unequal inside that group: Kenya sat at the 10% baseline, while Lesotho was initially hit with 50% and Madagascar with 47% reciprocal tariffs.

The formula used to calculate tariffs was based on the bilateral trade deficit each country ran with the United States. Countries that exported more to the U.S. than they imported were charged higher tariffs. Countries that had succeeded under AGOA were punished for running trade surpluses with the United States.

These surpluses existed largely because AGOA had encouraged export-oriented manufacturing in the first place. Lesotho is the clearest example. CSIS notes that Lesotho exported $237 million to the U.S. in 2024 while importing just $2.8 million, a gap that helped put it in line for the world’s highest announced tariff rate.

In other words, the tariff formula punished success. While the legal basis for those high tariffs was eventually challenged, the damage was done. International buyers now view African countries individually rather than together as a region.

This means some countries now have unfair advantages, while others face the threat of their industries collapsing because of tariff uncertainty.How Are New Tariffs Creating African Apparel's Winners And Losers?Kenya has  emerged as the clearest structural winner thanks to its 10% baseline tariff. It is the lowest among all major AGOA apparel exporters and gives it a competitive advantage it has never previously held relative to Lesotho and Madagascar. Kenya’s AGOA apparel exports hit $470 million in 2024, up 19.2% year-on-year, with 116 million pieces shipped.

This supports 66,800 direct jobs, according to Kenya’s private sector lobby. The apparel export growth trajectory is long-established over the years. Kenya’s apparel exports to the U.S. rose from $55 million in 2001 to $603 million in 2022, constituting 67.6% of total exports to the United States.

Investors are already favoring Kenya, seeing it as the lowest-risk U.S.-oriented production base due to low tariffs. As an example, the IFC committed $15 million in January 2025 to Royal Apparel EPZ for a new Nairobi factory, which is expected to create 3,700 new jobs.Nairobi has also resumed bilateral trade talks with Washington in an effort to secure a longer-term framework beyond AGOA expiration to lock in preferential access. This is important because, compared to its competitors, Kenya now offers large-scale apparel production, and a clear path toward a formal trade agreement.Lesotho, by contrast, remains the most exposed loser after the tariff debacle even after negotiation reduced the rate to 15%.

This is because competitive damage has already occurred with factories that supplied major global brands like Levi’s, Wrangler, Reebok, and JCPenney seeing orders collapse. As a result, the apparel situation in Lesotho faces an existential threat. Textiles and apparel represent 56.6% of the country’s manufactured goods exports, with approximately half going to the United States.

The industry employs over 30,000 workers making roughly 10% of GDP. The initial 50% tariff triggered a government-declared two-year state of disaster in July 2025. A one-year AGOA extension offers breathing space, but not a planning horizon that could help the country regain the competitive advantage it once had.

Madagascar is also at high risk with a 47% tariff. This rate makes exporting to the U.S. impossible for its 200,000 textile workers. Research from IDOS predicts that apparel exports to the U.S. could drop by 90%, losing $128.5 million in total apparel exports.

This would cause massive job losses and social instability. Officials warned that investors would move production to cheaper countries. Even if tariffs change, the recent instability has increased the risk for future investment in Madagascar.Ethiopia is a unique case