NBA playoff picks, predictions for 2026 bracket from first round games to NBA Finals originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.The NBA playoffs are here, and the field feels more open than usual. The rule of thumb is that a team needs at least a five percent chance of winning a championship to be considered a true contender.

This season, the Thunder, Spurs, Celtics, Nuggets, Cavs, Pistons, and Knicks all hit that threshold. It wouldn't be inconceivable for any of those seven to win. You can add the Wolves in as a dark horse too.

As usual, the Western Conference will be a bloodbath. The defending champion Thunder are the favorites, but they'll need to stay healthy to survive such a chaotic bracket.I’ve predicted the last two champions correctly. Let’s see if I can make it three in a row.

Here are my NBA predictions, from the first round to the Finals.SN AWARDS:Victor Wembanyama Player of the Year | Joe Mazzulla Coach of the Year2026 NBA Playoffs PredictionsEastern Conference(1) Pistons vs. (8) Magic/Hornets(2) Celtics vs. (7) Sixers(3) Knicks vs. (6) Hawks(4) Cavs vs. (5) RaptorsWestern Conference(1) Thunder vs. (8) Suns/Warriors(2) Spurs vs. (7) Blazers(3) Nuggets vs. (6) Wolves(4) Lakers vs. (5) Rockets Imagn Images NBA Playoffs predictions 2026: Eastern Conference first round(1) Pistons vs. (8) Magic/HornetsThe Pistons have Cade Cunningham back, and Detroit showed that they don't even need him in order to win games. They went 8-3 during his absence from a collapsed lung toward the end of the year.

They should obviously win this series, but it won't necessarily be a cakewalk. The team that the Pistons least wanted to face coming out of the Play-In Tournament was the Hornets, who have looked like a completely different group from the one that started the season 11-23. LaMelo Ball is leading a dynamic, fast-paced offense that can outscore anyone.

Charles Lee has the team defending way above its weight. The Magic look more disjointed. Franz Wagner is playing but banged up.

Paolo Banchero has been mostly ineffective this season. Jamahl Mosley is on the hottest seat in the league. This team looks good on paper, but they've been a mess.

The Pistons should take care of business either way, but it's not going to be a sweep if Charlotte makes it through. Winner: Pistons(2) Celtics vs. (7) SixersThe Sixers are going to be missing Joel Embiid, and they're not going to be competitive in this series without him. Embiid isn't nearly the same player defensively as he once was, but his offense was giving Philadelphia a big jolt.

Boston has gotten better as the season has progressed, and they've been through these battles before. Winner: Celtics(3) Knicks vs. (6) HawksNew York has been a hot and cold team this year. They've been trending upward as of late, improving their defense and getting stronger contributions from Karl-Anthony Towns.Put an inconsistent regular season aside.

Mike Brown was brought in specifically for the playoffs, where a more varied offense and less stubborn approach was supposed to lead to more success. This is put up or shut up time. This isn't a great matchup for Atlanta, who will have their hands full keeping Mitchell Robinson off the glass.

Onyeka Okongwu has been a quality center, but he's undersized. Jock Landale was vital in the backup role, and his availability is in doubt after a high ankle sprain. Atlanta signed Tony Bradley off the street, who has been ineffective.

The Knicks also have proven playoff scorers, while it's unclear how Quin Snyder's offensive system of unusual screening partners and multiple playmakers will hold up under a playoff scout that is more prepared for what's coming. Winner: Knicks(4) Cavs vs. (5) RaptorsThe Raptors have played the Cavs well, winning all three of their regular season matchups. They're a good defensive team that has the personnel to match up with Donovan Mitchell and James Harden, who didn't play in any of those games.

Harden gives the Cavs a new dimension. He's developed instant pick-and-roll chemistry with Jarrett Allen and allowed Donovan Mitchell to pick his spots better. For all of the criticisms about his playoff performances, he usually does well in earlier rounds.

The Raptors don't have those same levels of offensive weaponry. Brandon Ingram has been a good midrange volume scorer. Scottie Barnes can create for teammates as a point forward.

Cleveland has the size to slow both of those guys down, and Toronto doesn't have many other ways to produce good shots. Winner: Cavs Getty Images NBA Playoffs predictions 2026: Western Conference first round(1) Thunder vs. (8) Suns/WarriorsThe Thunder have everyone on their team relatively healthy. They've gone through stretches of boredom during the regular season, waiting for the playoffs to start. They're going to steamroll through this first round matchup, whether it's against a plucky Suns team or a Warriors group that's far too dependent on