You know that Fernando Mendoza is going first overall. You know that at No. 2, the New York Jets are deciding between Texas Tech edge David Bailey and Ohio State edge Arvell Reese. And you know that the bona fide superstars in this draft — running back Jeremiyah Love, safety Caleb Downs and linebacker Sonny Styles — do not play premium positions.

That’s what we’re seeing and hearing at the surface level. But this is "Sound Smart," where I try to spin forward, dive deeper and think outside the box. If I do my job, you’ll have a better understanding of what to expect ahead of the 2026 NFL Draft. 1.

MONDAY MORNING CONTROVERSY The Bengals won their trade for DT Dexter Lawrence. Period. At first glance, no one seemed to like the Dexter Lawrence trade for the Cincinnati Bengals. (I did, to be clear.

But basically no one else liked it.) It was "a steal" for New York — supposedly. A Top 10 pick! For Dexter Lawrence? A 28-year-old DT?

Why? How?! It’s actually really simple. Lawrence was a better player than whatever rookie the Bengals were going to get at 10th overall, even taking into account the financials, the age and the long-term planning.

Would you rather have Dexter Lawrence or Arizona State receiver Jordyn Tyson? Would you rather have Dexter Lawrence or LSU corner Mansoor Delane? Lawrence or Miami tackle Francis Mauigoa?

A top 10 pick sounds great. The reality of this year’s No. 10 is … not so great — unless maybe Ohio State safety Caleb Downs dropped that far. In this era of information, there are rare moments where we overthink a single transaction.

But there are outliers that buck the greater trends, and I see clearly why the Bengals thought this was a win for their organization. Cincinnati is a team that needs to get better in a hurry. The job security for coach Zac Taylor isn’t so much my concern.

It’s all about the Bengals’ relationship with veteran QB Joe Burrow. Listen to the way he sounded disenchanted with the game last year. He sounded like he could retire — or like he’d consider pulling a Matthew Stafford and demanding a trade.

Cincy could lose Burrow as early as 2027. In December, I called this the most important offseason ever for the Bengals. This is not a drill, folks.

This is one of the biggest issues an organization can face. The Bengals needed to address the issue. They’re starting to act like it, adding Lawrence to such offseason additions as edge Boye Mafe, safeties Bryan Cook and Kyle Dugger and defensive tackle Jonathan Allen.

I can see why — to some — that might make this move sound desperate. Or illogical. It’s neither. This 2026 draft isn’t very impressive at the top.

There will be places on Day 2 when teams will get a third-round-graded player in the third round. Otherwise, I bet most teams will feel like they're reaching, especially in Round 1. Some teams have fewer than 10 players with a first-round grade.

It’s possible the Bengals are one of those teams. Which would lend more credibility to the idea that Lawrence was worth it. It's a part of a bigger trend: an offseason where premium players have been especially scarce.

Because the draft was so weak, teams didn’t let their free agents get to the open market. (There were, for example, virtually no good defensive tackles on the open market with the best free agent option being 39-year-old Calais Campbell, who is actually still available, though not especially enticing). Because the draft is so weak and free agency looked thin, teams got more aggressive in acquiring veterans in the trade market — like cornerback Trent McDuffie, edge Maxx Crosby and receiver DJ Moore. (And I know that the Crosby deal with Baltimore fell apart, but that happened, in part, because Trey Hendrickson presented a rare value that the Ravens didn’t seem to initially anticipate.

They probably didn't anticipate his availability because of the trends I'm mentioning.) When it comes to the Lawrence deal, there is one thing that surprised me. And that’s the contract extension: one year, $28 million. I actually don’t mind that the one-year deal is equal to the entirety of the 10th overall pick’s contract (four years, $29 million).

But by signing Lawrence to only one year, the Bengals will almost certainly get into a more major negotiation with him next year, when he’ll be 29 and will want a multi-year contract. It would be a major issue if the Bengals only had Lawrence for one year. There’s some merit in signing him to a three-year deal right now to avoid cap complications down the line.

But that’s a headache the Giants would gladly accept, because they’re now looking at a defense which, this season, will have to defend running backs such as Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey and Jahmyr Gibbs, among others. It’s suddenly a ground-game league. And the Giants' defense looks like it's in danger of turning into ground meat next season without Lawrence. New York will probably draft inside linebacker Sonny Styles at fifth overall to help offset Lawrenc