WASHINGTON, DC - APRIL 08: Cole Henry #99 of the Washington Nationals is relieved by manager Blake Butera #10 in the ninth inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Nationals Park on April 08, 2026 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images) | Getty Images As we all know, the Nationals pitching staff has been a major problem. The team ERA is nearing 6, and the Nats have a real shortage of reliable arms.

Sometimes stats can get inflated one way or the other in April, but it does not feel like the Nats are suffering from bad luck. The Nats 5.92 team ERA does not seem very inflated.One way to see if pitchers are getting unlucky is to look at the underlying numbers. Numbers like FIP and xERA are a good way to measure a pitcher’s true skill level.

The Nats FIP of 5.75 and xERA of 5.52 are the worst in baseball. While the Astros have a worse team ERA, their FIP is 5.41 and xERA is 4.49. That suggests they should improve a bit.

The Nats are not really in line for that improvement.Another number that is really poor is their fWAR. Nats pitchers have combined for -2.2 fWAR, which is by far the worst in the league. Back in 2022, Nats pitchers had a 0 WAR for the season.

That was the worst mark of this decade. Do not be surprised if this group is in the negatives.When I said the Nationals had "quite possibly the worst pitching staff of the decade", I may have been too nice. They look worse than the Washington's pitching in 2022 that put up 0.0 fWAR— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) April 14, 2026It is tough to blame too much of this on coaching either.

The Nats are just at a real talent deficit on the mound. They just do not have many pitchers who are even average big leaguers. The Nats are filled with young guys trying to prove themselves, journeymen trying to find a home in the big leagues, and arms who are over the hill.For me, the two biggest problems are walks and home runs.

Lately, the walks have not been as bad, but the home runs are out of control. Nats pitchers have allowed 39 home runs, which is five more than the next closest team and 12 more than the team in third place. It is tough to be effective as a staff when you are allowing 1.85 home runs per 9 innings.I don't know the exact number of relievers since 2022 who have either walked or given up a homer to their very first batter faced as a member of the Nationals, but it's high.

Very high.— Mark Zuckerman (@MarkZuckerman) April 8, 2026The bullpen has drawn most of the fans ire, but they have been showing more signs of life lately. I think the bullpen is a slightly easier problem to solve. Guys like Cionel Perez, Gus Varland and PJ Poulin have been throwing the ball better lately.

We also saw good things from Richard Lovelady last night.I have a little bit of faith that the Nats can cobble together a bullpen that is not as bad as last year still. In the past couple weeks, the unit has been better. Even though they blew a 5-2 lead, the unit was good besides Mitchell Parker.

My bigger concerns are with the starting rotation.A Nats starter has only gone 6 innings once this season. That was Cade Cavalli against the Phillies a few weeks ago. Length has been a real issue for this staff.

They are struggling to even get through five innings. The quality is also poor with a starter ERA over 6.Team Starters ERA pic.twitter.com/oPDdlBA51x— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) April 18, 2026Outside of Foster Griffin, the whole unit has been really disappointing. Miles Mikolas was supposed to be an innings eater, but he barely even goes three innings anymore.

Zack Littell has just been too hittable so far. Jake Irvin’s stuff looks better, and I think he could improve, but his ERA is still over 6.For me, Cade Cavalli has been the biggest disappointment. He was supposed to be the staff ace, but has only completed five innings once.

The stuff is sharp, but his command and pitch selection leaves so much to be desired. He should get the season to try and figure things out, but eventually, he might have to be moved to the bullpen.Unfortunately, help is not really on the way. Andrew Alvarez is decent, and just got called up.

However, he is a 5 and dive guy who’s pure stuff is not great. Maybe he could be like Foster Griffin, but I am not as high on him as some. Riley Cornelio could be a solution, but he is not very proven.

Luis Perales has a lot of pedigree, but I think he is a reliever.The Nats offense has really been carrying the load right now, yet the team is still 9-12. I worry about what could happen if the offense cools off. Things could get really ugly.

This pitching staff has been very bad, and there are not many reasons to believe things will get better. Hopefully this staff can help improve guys, but they do not have a lot to work with.