Rather than add even more hypotheticals to the exercise, I did what most of the league will do Thursday: "stick and pick." I did roll the dice in projecting a few surprises, however. The unexpected picks are what make the NFL Draft so compelling every year.

One thing fans should expect are runs on receivers, offensive tackles and cornerbacks in the first round, with edge rushers being all the rage throughout the late portion of the first and throughout the second round. FIRST ROUND 1. Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana Long-suffering Raiders fans, this is your moment.

Klint Kubiak, the brilliant playcaller that helped turn Sam Darnold into a Super Bowl winner, took this job in large part because of the opportunity to select Mendoza, a perfect match for his offense. Prototypically built — from both a size and intangibles perspective — Mendoza looks like a good bet to hit big in Las Vegas. 2. New York Jets: David Bailey, Edge, Texas Tech The Jets finished last in the AFC in sacks last season — and that was with defensive linemen Quinnen Williams and Jermaine Johnson for much of it.

Bailey is the best pass-rusher in this class, winning with great burst and bend. An aggressive offseason spent adding veterans suggests that the Jets want the most bang for their buck with this pick, which is why they might lean toward Bailey over Arvell Reese, who has better traits. 3. Arizona Cardinals: Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame An anemic pass rush sure could use a boost, but the Cardinals aren’t going to climb out of the cellar in the NFC West if they can’t score.

Love is the most dynamic player in this draft and the kind of instant superstar that new coach Mike LaFleur (and general manager Monti Ossenfort) could lean on as their roster reset takes place. 4. Tennessee Titans: Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State Robert Saleh knows what he’s getting with Jermaine Johnson after previously coaching him in New York, but unless the Titans work out a long-term deal with him, the club should take advantage of the opportunity to boost their pass rush. Johnson, after all, has recorded just 13 sacks in his four NFL seasons.

Reese is an athletic phenom with enough size to play virtually anywhere in the front seven, tilting the field in his team’s favor. 5. New York Giants: Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State Speaking of stylistic matches, few NFL head coaches have enjoyed the success with safeties that John Harbaugh has, drafting three in the first round while with the Ravens, including All-Pro Kyle Hamilton and last year’s top pick, Malaki Starks. Incumbent starter Tyler Nubin missed the final few games last year with a neck injury that could force the Giants to consider alternative options.

Downs is a true alpha, the best open-field tackler in this class and, in my opinion, its best overall player. 6. Cleveland Browns: Spencer Fano, OT, Utah It doesn’t matter much who plays quarterback in Cleveland given its current situation at wide receiver and offensive tackle. Fano is a dancing bear at 6-foot-5, 311 pounds, with experience blocking at both tackle positions.

Given Fano’s durability (37 games played in three seasons), versatility and upside, it makes sense for the Browns to take their pick of the litter among linemen first before looking for receiver help with their second pick (No. 24 overall). 7. Washington Commanders: Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State This is another team that I could see considering Tate to spice up its receiver room, but Styles is just too clean of a fit in Dan Quinn’s defense, if available here. Linebackers with Styles’ size and sideline-to-sideline range are rare — his ceiling is as a Fred Warner or Bobby Wagner-type franchise pillar.

With just one selection over the first two rounds, the Commanders need to hit on this pick and the remarkably gifted Styles would be exactly that. 8. New Orleans Saints: Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State As one of the NFL’s longest-tenured and most aggressive draft-day traders, Saints GM Mickey Loomis might not wait until pick No. 8, but patience pays off with the most pro-ready pass-catcher of this class falling into his lap. Tate’s soft hands, catch radius and body control help him project as a true WR1 — precisely what second-year head coach Kellen Moore and quarterback Tyler Shough need. 9.

Kansas City Chiefs: Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU Needing to replace three key members from last year’s secondary, this feels like the floor for Delane (or Caleb Downs). With his smooth athleticism, instincts and success against elite competition, Delane offers both a very high ceiling and floor at a premium position. 10. New York Giants: Francis Mauigoa, OL, Miami Though they are nothing like him from a size and style perspective, I consid