Following arson attacks on the Mexican mainland in the wake of the death of CJNG cartel leader “El Mencho” in February, Los Cabos saw a 7.1% dip in international travel in March. (Los Cabos Tourism Board) ‘El Mencho’ and the Los Cabos paradox “We have to take into account that the beginning of this year was marked by an atmosphere of insecurity that permeated the perception of the destination abroad,” explained Mauricio Salicrup, the Secretary of the Board of Directors of the Los Cabos Hotel Association, referring to the incidents of cars set ablaze in several areas of Mexico — although, notably, not in Los Cabos — following the arrest and death of CJNG cartel leader Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes in the state of Jalisco on Feb. 22. “Although the Los Cabos Tourism Board (FITURCA) promotes and clarifies the situation in Los Cabos compared to what happens in the rest of the country, it still affects us because there is always a decrease in tourism due to companies sending notices to their employees prohibiting travel to Mexico for safety reasons.” A solid, if unspectacular year so far Which is to say, despite Los Cabos’ superb safety record and peninsular isolation from mainland Mexico, the destination is losing business due to perceptions of Mexico as a whole among U.S. and other international travelers.

How much is it being hurt? Salicrup, in an interview with Sudcaliforniano, said there has been a 49% decrease in demand from U.S. travelers during the first quarter of 2026, a 23% loss of Canadian travelers and a 16% dip in the domestic market. Those numbers sound alarming and could certainly cause very rational fears for business owners in Los Cabos who depend on tourism.

However, some context is needed. Although there is no public data regarding reservations made with area hotels and resorts, there is ample data on the number of tourists who fly into Los Cabos, and by that standard, Los Cabos is having a solid, if unspectacular, year. So far, at least.

What the numbers say about international arrivals The number of international tourists arriving in Los Cabos was up relative to 2025 in both January and February 2026 (by 2.6% and 4.2%, respectively), according to Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP), which operates Los Cabos International Airport. Now, since the aforementioned incidents in which no tourists were hurt happened in late February, March is where one would expect to see a decline, and indeed that did happen. International arrivals were down by 7.1%, falling from over 545,000 in 2025 to 507,000 in 2026.

But there was also a record number of spring breakers in March and, in the first week of April, robust 90% hotel occupancy for Semana Santa, so it’s not as if the sky is falling, especially since, for the year, Los Cabos has seen only a 0.7% dip in international arrivals. The long-term fallout International visitors to Los Cabos are down slightly in 2026, but it’s the drop in domestic visitors that’s really concerning. (Los Cabos International Airport) Of course, Salicrup’s point is that the drop in demand is driven largely by insecurity fears, so that being the case, it’s too early to tell what diminishing reservations right now might mean for summer, or for the remainder of the year.

Perhaps this is the start of a precipitous drop, or perhaps it all ends up being a tempest in a teacup. In a recent interview with Travel Weekly, CruisingStores CEO Dwain Wall, whose company sells more than just cruises to Mexico, noted that bookings for the country had been down 40% in the weeks immediately following the images of burning cars being broadcast on American and Canadian televisions. But, with the exception of Puerto Vallarta — where insecurity was most glaringly obvious and where international arrivals plunged by 32% in March — he expects tourism in Mexico to bounce back pretty quickly, assuming nothing else happens this year to alarm tourists.

As for Los Cabos, Wall said, bookings had indeed softened but should pick up soon. The domestic tourism decline in Los Cabos Despite the attention given to speculations on the international tourism market in Los Cabos, it’s the domestic market that has proven to be a clear and demonstrable problem. Domestic tourism has declined in Los Cabos for nine straight months relative to year-over-year (YoY) numbers.

In July 2025, per GAP numbers, domestic passengers were down by over 10,000 from the same month in 2024. In August, by over 6,000 from the previous year; in September, by more than 12,000; in October, by over 17,000; in November, 9,000; in December, 13,000; in January, 13,000; in February, 6,000; and in March, more than 15,000! These numbers add up quickly and point to the real issue dragging down tourism in Los Cabos