First-round picks have a much higher rate of success than fourth-round picks, and second-round picks have a much higher rate of success than sixth-round picks. A first-rounder flopping could cost a general manager his job, but a seventh-rounder never panning out is nothing out of the ordinary.That doesn't mean all highly-drafted players fulfill expectations. The 2026 NFL Draft will inevitably have its share of busts, and a few players have already showed warning signs before hearing their name called in Pittsburgh.Here are seven NFL Draft prospects who could be bust candidates in 2026.MORE: Sporting News' complete 7-round mock draftTy Simpson, QB, AlabamaThe rate of success for quarterbacks with only one year of starting experience at the college level isn't particularly high.

Simpson spent four years in Alabama's system between Nick Saban and Kalen DeBoer, but he didn't take over as the Crimson Tide's starter until 2025. Will that lack of experience matter?Simpson, in essence, has only a half-season of impressive football under his belt. He looked like an NFL quarterback over Alabama's first eight games in 2025, throwing 20 touchdowns to only one interception and beating some talented defenses, but his accuracy suffered late in the season.Nagging injuries and health issues, including gastritis, might have hampered Simpson, but his slight build at 6-foot-1 and 211 pounds raises questions about his durability at the next level.

Simpson's arm is fine and he generally keeps the ball out of harm's way, but it doesn't jump off the page compared to NFL starters. If Simpson is over-drafted, it will be the result of a lack of elite-level quarterback prospects in this draft. The hit rate for first-round quarterbacks outside the No. 1 pick is much shakier than other positions because teams are desperate to find a franchise quarterback, and Simpson could be the latest to fall short of those expectations.MORE:Top takeaways from Fernando Mendoza's pro dayRueben Bain, EDGE, Miami Bain was an absolute monster at times on Miami's defense in 2025, finishing the year with 15.5 tackles for loss and constantly disrupting opposing quarterbacks.

By the eye test, he looked like a potential NFL star -- and he could be. If he is, he will be breaking precedent related to arm length.Bain's arms measured in at 30 7/8 inches at the NFL Combine in February, which is one of the shortest measurements of any edge rusher in recent history. Since 2010, there is no comparison for a first-round edge rusher whose arms are as short as Bain's.

Carl Lawson and Trey Hendrickson are examples of pass-rushers who found NFL success with arms below 33 inches, but Lawson (31 1/2) and Hendrickson (32) still came in ahead of Bain and weren't close to being first-round picks. If Bain has found a way to be so successful to this point, there is little doubt he is capable of having a long NFL career. As he faces bigger bodies, however, it's worth wondering whether he will live up to the billing that comes with being a likely top-10 pick.

MORE:Why Rueben Bain's arm measurements could be troublingOutside of the arm concerns, off-field concerns have also surfaced for Bain. A recent report revealed Bain was charged with careless driving after a 2024 crash that killed a passenger in his car, though the charge was later dropped. Subsequent reports said NFL teams already knew about the incident and weren't concerned, but any red flag is something front offices pay attention to this time of year.Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama Mar 1, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Alabama offensive lineman Kadyn Proctor (OL41) during the NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images A talented player struggling to stay in shape is a tale as old as time. That doesn't mean Proctor will be the latest to deal with those issues, but his weight is a potential red flag as he prepares for his his NFL career.Proctor measured in at 6-7 and 366 pounds at the NFL Combine, but he said weeks later that he was already down into the 350s and didn't consider 365-370 an acceptable playing weight. Proctor showed up to training camp weighing about 390 pounds in 2025.

While the offensive tackle insists he can manage his weight and keep it where his future team wants it, the fluctuations at Alabama and his inconsistency on the field are concerns, as is Proctor's mobility. The raw talent to be a strong pass protector is absolutely there, but more than a few offensive linemen have cost themselves money in the NFL by struggling to stay in shape.MORE:Biggest, strongest, fastest from 2026 NFL Com