Most of my analysis focuses on hitter skills, luck factors and other underlying metrics that could be contributing to the player’s outcomes. Our first hitter leaderboard involves bat speed and fast-swing percentage risers. Statcast defines fast swing percentage as the percentage of swings at 75 mph or more.

Think of fast swing rate as something similar to hard hit percentage. However, I like that the bat speed metrics provide the inputs for potential exit velocity outputs. Bat Speed and Fast Swing Percentage Risers We filtered by hitters with 100 plate appearances in 2025 and 10 plate appearances in 2026 to provide a wider sample.

Then we examined hitters who had an above-average bat speed at 73 mph or more, with a 25% fast-swing percentage or higher in 2026. That said, here’s a look at the hitters who met those thresholds while showing a 1 mph bat speed increase in 2026.Hitters with an increase in bat speed and fast-swing rate in 2026. (Photo by Corbin Young/Yahoo Sports)Like any leaderboard, there’s a mixture of noisy and notable players. The most fantasy-relevant players include Cam Smith, Colton Cowser, Denzel Clarke, Dominic Canzone, Hunter Goodman, J.T.

Realmuto (on the IL), Jackson Merrill, Jeremiah Jackson, Kyle Stowers, Luis García Jr., Luke Raley and Mark Vientos. That doesn’t mean the rest don’t matter, but Amed Rosario, Gabriel Arias, Mitch Garver and others may only be relevant in deeper formats.Meanwhile, we’ve seen Canzone, Smith, Jackson and Raley raise their stock and roster percentages in most formats. Let’s examine five hitters who have been performing well and whether they’re legitimate or not based on the skill, luck factors and underlying metrics.

Nico Hoerner (98% Rostered)Hoerner was a potential player to fade for me earlier in the offseason, but he’s shoved that in my face early on. He’s already hit four home runs in 107 plate appearances; his career-high of 10 homers was in 2022. Since April 5, Hoerner has been consistently deployed in the leadoff spot, which surprised us to see more RBI (22) than runs scored (15).

Hoerner’s strong plate discipline remained similar to the career norms, but we’re seeing him pull (42.2%) and lift the ball in the air (41% flyball rate) in 2026. For context, Hoerner’s pull and flyball rates in 2026 have been 6-7 percentage points above his career average.Nico Hoerner's rolling pull and flyball rates. (Photo by Corbin Young/FanGraphs)That coincides with Hoerner’s 24.1% pulled air rate in 2026, up from a career average of 14.6%. Though we haven’t seen his bat speed, average exit velocities and barrel rates shift when he pulls the ball and overall, Hoerner showed a 75-76% ideal attack angle on pulled balls over the past two seasons.

That’s a nearly 20-point jump in Hoerner’s ideal attack angle overall throughout his career.A reminder that the ideal attack angle rate is the percentage of swings between 5 and 20 degrees, typically leading to quality outcomes and consistent launch angles.Unsurprisingly, Hoerner’s pulled batted balls in the air tend to be around 90+ mph in average exit velocity and a 70.1 mph bat speed over the past two seasons. We should continue to see a career-high barrel-per-plate-appearance rate (2.8%), which might only hover near the league average (5%). That matters because league-average power usually means 12-15 home runs as a floor, making Hoerner a massive value, especially if he maintains his 24% stolen base opportunity rate, three points above his career average.

Hoerner’s skills have been consistent across the board, with the most notable being the pulled air rate, potentially leading to a career-high in home runs. That will be a big miss for me, and we’ve seen hitters with good plate discipline add power and bat speed like Brice Turang. Hoerner should also be on track for career-highs in runs and RBI, given the lineup context and lineup spot.

Adding even league-average power increases Hoerner’s value. Austin Riley (98% Rostered)There were rumors about Riley stealing more bases with a new baserunning coach, Antoan Richardson, this season. Riley has shown above-average Sprint Speeds in 2025 (73rd percentile) and 2024 (66th percentile), with similar numbers in 2026.

In the early 2026 sample, Riley’s stolen base opportunity rate is 8%, compared to a 1% career average. That’s not a significant change in stolen base opportunity rate, but he is on pace to surpass his career high of three. Stealing bases tends to be a mix of opportunity, coaching decisions and athleticism.

Riley has possessed above-average athleticism throughout his career. If