The event enlisted a panel that included Churchill Downs reporter Kaitlin Benson, Churchill Downs track announcer Travis Stone and Horse Racing Nation’s Ed DeRosa with Courier Journal horse racing reporter Jason Frakes to provide insight on the best and worst in the field. The group broke down several races and discussed the horses and jockeys expected to hit the track in the 152nd Run for the Roses. Here are five takeaways from the Better Derby Betting event: Renegade expected to be the morning-line favorite but not panel’s favorite If you go to Churchill Downs this week, don’t expect to see Renegade because he’s not there.

He’s still in Florida with the plan being to wait until the very last minute to bring him into town. Despite Renegade being expected to be the Derby’s morning-line favorite, the panel wasn’t sold on the colt, with DeRosa’s preference being Further Ado. Benson believes Renegade will be too far back during the race and called jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.’s Derby record “terrible.” Ortiz is 0 for 9 in the Derby, with his best finish being fourth while riding Improbable in 2019.

He was scheduled to ride Forte, the favorite, in 2023, before the horse scratched. But Stone countered by calling Ortiz a generational talent and saying he believes Ortiz will win a Kentucky Derby soon.Buy tickets here for Kentucky Derby 152 History doesn’t favor Albus in Kentucky Derby Benson liked Albus, a Riley Mott-trained horse, for the bottom of a superfecta, but the panel raised some concerns about the colt’s pedigree and maturity. There’s potential there, but because of some immaturity, Albus isn’t a favored horse in the race.

DeRosa has Albus in the bottom 10% of the horses in the field.But what sets Albus back even more is that he’s the only horse in the field that has raced at Churchill Downs but hasn’t won there. Since 1992, Kentucky Derby horses that had raced at Churchill Downs but didn’t win coming into the Run for the Roses are 0 for 46, according to DeRosa.Chad Brown’s confidence speaks volumes about Emerging Market Chad Brown has been known to be a conservative trainer. He’s not opposed to pulling one of his horses if he doesn’t believe they’re ready.

That’s what has created some interest in Emerging Market. Although the 3-year-old colt has only two previous starts, he won both, the most recent being the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. There’s a belief that he can still be competitive in the field despite his inexperience.

"This is an extremely difficult task,” Stone said. “... Perhaps the Derby is one race too soon, but perhaps not.”Confidence in The Puma dwindling The Puma shipped late and didn’t arrive until Tuesday.

And his only work was walking around shed row despite initial reports that he would get some track work in. While interviewing trainer Gustavo Delgado, Benson picked up on some reluctance in the horse, saying that the level of confidence “wasn’t what I was looking for.” Stone echoed the sentiments.“The interview they did the day before, they were beaming with confidence. They were really excited to be here,” Stone said.

“... Then the interview today was now, we’re to the point where we have to get lucky, make sure everything goes well. Reading between the lines here, playing psychologist, if you will.

But it was enough for us to mention it here. Put it that way.” Further Ado, Chief Wallabee are the favorites of the panel DeRosa named Further Ado and Fulleffort as his favorites to win the Kentucky Derby. He noted that Further Ado has the highest combined margin of victory at Keeneland since 1991 after winning the Bluegrass Stakes six months after breaking his maiden at the Lexington track.

Stone, too, is intrigued by Further Ado, who he said reminded him of 2006 Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro because of his upside. He picked Further Ado and Fulleffort as his favorites.Benson named Chief Wallabee as her Derby winner, while Frakes stuck with The Puma as his pick. Reach Louisville football, women's basketball and baseball beat writer Alexis Cubit at acubit@gannett.com and follow her on X at @Alexis_Cubit. This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Kentucky Derby 2026 handicapping tips from CJ's Better Derby Betting