Don’t be deceived. There are certainly some positive hints of a breakout for the 24-year-old, but so far this season he’s done nothing new to warrant playing everyday. As we covered after the first series of the season in San Diego, Keith does show some underlying improvements that point to an impending breakout.

He’s swinging the bat faster than ever, and he’s hitting the ball harder. His new upright stance, combined with the breathwork he started this offseason to help his body to stay more relaxed in the batter’s box, certainly have him looking more confortable and much less tense than in his first wo seasons. No one would argue that those aren’t positive developments., but they still have to translate to upgraded production before we can really say that Keith is unlocking a new level in his offensive game.

Our own Cannon at the Corner wrote about these early signs back on April 1.Really this is all pretty simple in terms of what a real, sustainable breakout from Keith would look like. For all the angst about him being platooned to hit right-handed pitching only, we have to recognize that Colt Keith is still only a modestly above average hitter against right-handed pitching. Until that changes and he becomes a force, he’s not going to get that many chances to hit left-handed pitching as well.

That’s not a slight on Keith as much as it is important to get your right-handed hitters into the lineup because they’re generally going to outhit Keith by a signficant margin in the proper matchups against lefties. So, if you’re wondering how Keith is supposed to get better at hitting lefties when he rarely faces them, the answer is that he’ll earn those chances by hitting right-handed pitching better than he has in the early stages of his major league career. He’d also have a lot easier time if he played plus defense somewhere or was a big basestealing threat, something else to augment the bat.

Right now, Keith holds a 112 wRC+ after two previous seasons in which he posted a 95 mark, and then a 109 mark in 2025. If you prefer OPS+ that’s fine, but they’re generally not much different, and those two metrics are the best “one stop shop” to get an idea of a hitter’s overall contibution to run production. They’re reset each year so that 100 represents league average.

So far, Colt is 12 percent better at doing the things that produce runs than the average major league hitter. That’s reasonably good, but considering he’s generally protected from tough lefties, it’s not really great in the sense of an everyday, full-time player. Yes, Keith is hitting .309, but batting average is more of a descriptive statistic than one that tells you anything about how productive a hitter actually is.

The simplest way to frame this, is that offense is all about collecting bases. Two singles or two walks equals one double in the simplest calculation. Sure, with runners on base, a single is better than a walk because said runners can often advance two bases, but without runners on base, a walk is better because it costs the opposing more pitches typically, and because walking has more of a psychological effect on a pitcher than giving up a ground ball that happens to get through the infield or a routine liner into the outfield for a single.

But again, the goal is to collect bases, and move your teammates ahead of you around said bases, and using wRC+ or OPS+ gives you the best idea how well a hitter is succeeding. So, Keith is hitting .309, but his batting average on balls in play is a whopping .396. Keith’s average BABIP mark is .307, meaning that a bit over 30 percent of his balls in play are going for hits.

This year so far, he’s close to 40 percent, and that just isn’t sustainable. A higher batting average, without significant improvements in walk rate, strikeout rate, and power production, is the definition of fool’s gold in baseball. Keith is hitting the ball harder, and so a higher BABIP is appropriate, but something closer to a .310-.320 batting average on balls in play is probably the high water mark here and with enough time his numbers are going to settle at or below that level.

Only 26 qualified hitters topped that mark in 2025. Riley Greene’s .323 mark made him the only Tiger to do it. Incidentally, Kevin McGonigle will be one of those elite guys who consistently runs a high BABIP too. No worrie