The Democratic redistricting victory is the party’s second in a statewide referendum. When combined with new lines that California voters endorsed in November, Democrats have now succeeded in drawing districts that will likely yield them nine more seats this fall, at least matching what Republicans have been able to achieve in states that they control. By some measures, Democrats have jumped into the redistricting lead, bolstering their chances of winning back the House majority in the midterm elections.The battle is not over.

The GOP-dominated Florida legislature will hold a special session next week to consider redistricting, and the Democratic victory in Virginia could help Governor Ron DeSantis win over lawmakers who are reluctant to press the Republican advantage too far. Officials in both parties expect the Supreme Court to issue a ruling in the coming months that will weaken if not eviscerate a key part of the Voting Rights Act, which would allow states such as Louisiana and Alabama to carve up districts now held by Black Democrats. (Such a decision would have an even larger impact in southern states come 2028.)But for now, Trump’s move to open this new front in a centuries-old gerrymandering war between the parties looks like an enormous tactical blunder.

Republicans have appeared taken aback by the ferocity with which Democrats have responded—and the speed with which they’ve set aside their drive to ban gerrymandering in the name of good government. In both California and Virginia, Democrats swamped the opposition in campaign spending, using the redistricting referenda to rile up a party base seeking any opportunity to push back against an unpopular administration. The margin of victory was much narrower in Virginia, where Republicans accused Democrats—wishfully, it turned out—of overreaching with a push to take 10 out of 11 seats in a state that had a GOP governor only a few months ago. (Democrats currently hold six of the state’s House seats.) “If they would have done a more measured map, they would have blown this thing out,” Zack Roday, a Richmond-based Republican campaign strategist, told me.Like other GOP operatives I spoke with, Roday defended the White House’s gerrymandering push, however risky it has turned out to be.

“Your job is to contingency-plan on all of these pieces. And I think they fully knew what could happen,” he said, calling the move, on balance, “a worthy gamble.” “You have to do everything you can to gain that advantage, given the cycle, given the environment that we’re in.”Democrats joined this fight at a distinct disadvantage. The party had spent years not only warning about the evils of gerrymandering but backing legislation and ballot measures to prohibit the practice where they could. (A Democratic effort to pass a federal gerrymandering ban fell to a Senate filibuster in 2022.) States, including California and Virginia, had given power over redistricting to non- or bipartisan commissions, forcing Democrats to seek permission from voters to override the panels through expensive snap elections.

Republicans, having never embraced redistricting reform in the first place, had no such limits in the states they controlled. All they had to do was pass new maps through GOP-dominated state legislatures. Texas was the first to move, as Republican lawmakers enacted newly drawn districts in August, overcoming a bid by Democrats to deny quorum in the legislature by fleeing the state.[Read: ‘California is allowed to hit back’]In California, Democrats, led by Governor Gavin Newsom—seeking a political win ahead of a likely 2028 presidential bid—responded quickly and aggressively to the Republican gerrymander in Texas.

They drew up new House lines targeting five GOP-held seats and buttressing several more of their own battleground districts. Voters endorsed the move overwhelmingly in a November referendum. Democrats enjoyed several advantages in California, beginning with a huge, deep-blue electorate. Another was timing: The election occurred at a moment when the GOP gerrymandering drive was peaking and offered voters angered by Trump’s moves to consolidate power their first opportunity to push back.That edge had faded by the time the campaign arrived in Virginia, a lighter-blue state where vote