If anything, the borrowing will just bloat further the already unsustainable public debt. To resolve the fuel crisis, one must address the elephant in the room, which is foreign exchange availability. For decades, Malawi has grappled with financing its imports due to shortage of forex, a persistent structural issue requiring structural solutions.

In my previous write-ups, some dating back to 2022 when fuel shortages resurfaced after another more pronounced crisis a decade earlier, I stated that Malawi will continue to be haunted by fuel stockouts in the foreseeable future unless tangible action is taken to improve things on the production side to generate more foreign exchange. RBM data show that the forex this country generates is only enough to cover 33 percent or one third of our import needs. Each month, Malawi spends an average of $250 million for imports, an equivalent of almost half of last season’s revenue from tobacco, the country’s major foreign exchange earner.

In some years, tobacco revenue has not even been enough to cover a month’s import bill. Thus, while geopolitics in the oil-rich regions may have an impact on supply chains, our fuel problems are beyond such factors. They are structural.

In the past, letters of credit (LCs) served us better, but now, with the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East following the joint US-Israel war on Iran, the terms have changed with suppliers dictating. They are now demanding cash, not LCs in the face of demand outpacing the subdued supply. In his inauguration speech on October 4 2025 following his triumph in the September 16 2025 General Election that took him back to State House after a five-year break, President Peter Mutharika committed to tackle “the four Fs” covering food, fertiliser, foreign exchange and fuel.

He acknowledged that the situation had reached a critical stage demanding both urgent and long-term interventions. While the food ‘F’ appear to be on course, the other three are yet to stabilise with the forex ‘F’ the root of all problems facing Malawians. Forex scarcity has driven up commodity prices with every importer claiming to be sourcing the dollar on the black market.

Malawi has become a black market nation dictated by parallel market ‘Monetary Policy Committee’ to the detriment of the economy. Malawi needs trade more than aid. Growing the exports doesn’t happen overnight, but is critical to achievement of targets in Malawi 2063, the country’s long-term development strategy that envisages diversification of export products within the agricultural sector and towards other sectors, including mining and tourism as having potential to make a difference.

For an economy on its knees and staring at the prospect of missing the MW2063 First 10-Year Implementation Plan (MIP- 1) targets of transforming into a lower middle-income status by 2030 due to stunted growth and other factors, we can ill-afford quick-fixes and business as usual approach. Talking about MIP-1 targets, the writing was on the wall back in June 2024 when the National Planning Commission raised red flags that the targets had derailed, Malawi was unlikely to become a lower middle-income country by 2030 and can only attain the goals 15 years later if it remains on the current path. Two years later today, nothing has changed.

Efficiency in the procurement of commodities such as fuel and fertiliser is also key to ensuring security of supply and pricing on the local market. Efficiency entails cutting down on overheads resulting from corruption and involvement of the intermediaries (dobadobas) that push up prices. In the procurement of fuel, I have always admired how Petroleum Importers Limited (PIL), a consortium of private oil marketing companies, efficiently manages to import a good share of the country’s fuel with a staff compliment of less than 30 compared to scores at the State-owned National Oil Company of Malawi (Nocma).

Surely, PIL can offer some lessons. Forex generation is the lasting solution to ensuring availability of fuel. But, while the nation works to raise forex, engaging private players, including Malawians in the diaspora would help in financing the fuel imports.

Detail the terms and allow them to use Nocma storage facilities. In other words, liberalising the fuel importation business can do the trick. While we mobilise or devise strategies to boost forex earnings, it would also be prudent to account for the little forex we generate.

Follow the money, as they say. It is hearbre