In Westminster, Keir Starmer can breathe a sigh of relief that the front pages haven’t splashed on further Mandelson developments or Labour tensions for the first time in a week. But something has shifted over the past few days. You saw it in the candour of Ed Miliband and Pat McFadden on the morning broadcast round, the blunt responses of Yvette Cooper in front of MPs, even in the eyes of Rachel Reeves sitting behind Starmer on the front benches.
For weeks, we have been stuck in a holding pattern in which a majority in cabinet – the “Praetorian Guard” – have been determined to save the Prime Minister. Now, “the cabinet have given up,” as one adviser puts it. They are appalled by his judgement in sacking Olly Robbins and now expect Starmer never to escape the Mandelson story.
There are more committee hearings next week, more disclosures from the Mandelson files to come, and Starmer himself is likely to have to face the privileges committee, as Boris Johnson did. “It will never end,” one insider concludes. A column this morning from my old colleague Patrick Maguire in the Times sets out the consensus emerging among a critical mass of ministers: that, after Britain resoundingly rejects Labour – in all sorts of different ways, to different parties, in different parts of the country – in the May devolved and local elections, Starmer “should be made to set out a timetable for an orderly transition, with a new leader in place for conference”.
The flurry of messages I received last night showed many insiders concur. But the operative words are “made to”. Where is Starmer’s own mind in all this?
I spoke to a few people close to him last night and this morning, and they all told me the same thing: as far as they can tell, he still intends to fight in any leadership contest that emerges. The defiant line we were being fed by Downing Street sources months ago – that Starmer will contest any challenge against him – hasn’t changed. Of course, the line is the line until it isn’t the line.
In fact, it would be too early for Starmer’s allies to even hint that he might agree to step away after May: that’s a conversation for two weeks’ time, when the elections are over and Labour people up and down the country aren’t relying on the leadership to keep it together. No one in Labour would forgive the top of the party for sending candidates into battle without a leader, and no Labour MP or leadership hopeful wants to decimate the party’s base around the country any more than can be avoided. Things can remain on a simmer, but even the people desperate to get rid of Starmer don’t want things to reach boiling point until these crucial elections are over.
But once they are, what will Starmer think? He could well change his mind about fighting on, or perhaps he could “be made” to change it by the sheer force of a unanimous cabinet and an angry party telling him how it is going to be. But there are still some loyal guards among the cabinet ranks.
And for months, Starmer’s closest allies have told me how determined he is to fight on. Something has shifted in the cabinet. But will it shift in Keir Starmer too? This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; receive it every morning by subscribing on Substack here [Further reading: “Ed Davey’s just too beige”: Inside the Lib Dems’ election campaign]